8501.0 - Retail Trade, Australia, May 2005

ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 01/07/2005

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Main Features
About this Release

MAY KEY FIGURES

		May 05	Apr 05 to May 05
		$m	% change

Turnover at current prices
	Trend estimates	16,869.3	0.2
	Seasonally adjusted estimates	16,898.9	0.9

Monthly turnover, Trend estimates - % change
Graph: Monthly turnover, Trend estimate, Percentage change

MAY KEY POINTS

TREND ESTIMATES

The trend estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series increased by 0.2% in May 2005, the same increase as in both April and March 2005.
In May 2005, there was an increase in the trend estimate for Victoria (+0.5%), Western Australia (+0.4%), Queensland (+0.3%), the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory (both +0.1%).
Over the three months to May 2005 the trend estimate increased by $103m. Food retailing (+$76m) and Hospitality and services (+$46m) had the largest increases, while Other retailing (-$32m) and Department stores (-$26m) decreased.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

The seasonally adjusted estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series increased by 0.9% in May 2005. This follows decreases of 0.5% in April 2005 and 0.1% in March 2005.
All states except the Northern Territory had an increase in the seasonally adjusted estimate in May 2005. Victoria (+1.5%), New South Wales (+1.0%), the Australian Capital Territory (+1.0%) and South Australia (+0.7%) had the largest increases.
Strong growth was recorded for Department stores (+9.1%) and Clothing and soft good retailing (+4.5%), partly attributable to sales, following falls of 11.7% and 6.5%, respectively, in April 2005.

ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

In original terms, Australian turnover increased by 1.4% in May 2005 compared with April 2005. Chains and other large retailers (which are completely enumerated) increased by 1.7%, while 'smaller' retailers (the sampled units) increased by 1.0%.
Australian turnover increased by 2.9% in May 2005 compared with May 2004. Chains and other large retailers increased by 3.8%, while 'smaller' retailers increased by 1.7%.

NOTES

REVISIONS

For April 2005, revisions have been made to Food retailing for New South Wales and Western Australia. These revisions are a result of the rectification of data errors.

SAMPLING ERRORS

Standard errors for the Australian estimates (original data) for May 2005 contained in this publication are:

Data Series	Estimate	Standard error

Level of retail turnover ($m)	16,326.2	132.7
Change from preceding month ($m)	222.0	41.0
% change from preceding month (%)	1.4	0.3

For more information see the Explanatory Notes, paragraph 32-36.

INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Graham Phillips on Canberra (02) 6252 5625.

INDUSTRY TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

TOTAL RETAIL

There has been weak growth in the trend for six months. In May 2005, Food retailing, Household good retailing, Recreational good retailing and Hospitality and services had an increase in the trend estimate.

FOOD RETAILING

There has been three months of moderate growth. Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory have had at least three months of moderate growth.

DEPARTMENT STORES

There has been a decline in the trend estimate for four months. All published states have had a decline in the trend estimate for at least three months with Queensland and the Australian Capital Territory having been in decline for at least nine months.

Graph: Industry trends_Department stores

CLOTHING AND SOFT GOOD RETAILING

There was no change in the trend in May 2005. Queensland, Western Australia and Tasmania have had moderate or strong growth for at least five months. All other states, except the Northern Territory, have had a decline in the trend estimate for at least one month.

Graph: Industry trends_Clothing and soft good retailing

HOUSEHOLD GOOD RETAILING

Growth in the trend has been slowing since October 2004, with weak growth for the last three months. There has been strong growth in Victoria for three months, while Queensland, South Australia, the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory have had a decline in the trend estimate for six, four, one and seven months respectively.

Graph: Industry trends_Household good retailing

RECREATIONAL GOOD RETAILING

There has been moderate growth for three months which has followed two months of strong growth. All states except New South Wales, South Australia and the Northern Territory have had strong growth for at least two months. Queensland and Western Australia have had at least seven months of strong growth.

Graph: Industry trends_Recreational good retailing

OTHER RETAILING

The trend series has been in decline for eight months. All published states, except Victoria and the Australian Capital Territory which both had strong growth in May 2005, have had a decline in the trend estimate for at least four months.

TOTAL RETAIL (EXCLUDING HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES)

Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) has had weak growth for ten months. Over the last two months, the rate of trend growth for Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) has been slightly slower than Total industries (including Hospitality and services).

Graph: Industry trends_Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services)

HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES

There has been moderate trend growth for three months. All states, except Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory which have had a decline in the trend estimate, had moderate to strong trend growth in May 2005. Strongest growth has been in Queensland, South Australia and the Northern Territory with five, two and 13 months of strong growth respectively.

Graph: Industry trends_Hospitality and services

STATE TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

NEW SOUTH WALES

The trend estimate has been in decline for two months. Department stores, Clothing and soft good retailing, Recreational good retailing and Other retailing have had a decline in the trend estimate for at least three months.

VICTORIA

There has been moderate trend growth for three months. Food retailing, Household good retailing, Recreational good retailing and Other retailing have had at least three months of moderate to strong growth in the trend, while Department stores has had a decline in the trend estimate for three months.

QUEENSLAND

There has been weak growth in the trend for two months. Clothing and soft good retailing, Recreational good retailing and Hospitality and services have had moderate to strong growth for at least five months. In contrast, there has been a decline in the trend estimate for Department stores, Household good retailing and Other retailing for at least six months.

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

There has been a decline in the trend estimate for three months. All industries, except Food retailing and Hospitality and services, have had a decline in the trend estimate for at least four months, with Clothing and soft good retailing having had a decline for ten months. Hospitality and services has had strong growth for two months.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

After three months of weak trend growth, there has been moderate growth for the past two months. Recreational good retailing has had strong growth for 11 months, while Food retailing, Clothing and soft good retailing and Hospitality and services have had at least three months of moderate growth. There has been a decline in the trend estimate for Department stores and Other retailing for at least three months.

TASMANIA

There has been a decline in the trend estimate for two months which followed two months of weak growth. Food retailing and Hospitality and services have had a decline in the trend estimate for at least one month. Clothing and soft good retailing and Recreational good retailing have had strong growth for at least two months.